Quote from nayayar3 on April 24, 2025, 7:27 pm

Let’s geek out: which single metric flips a maybe‑bet into a must‑bet for you? I’m torn between recent xG differential and pure form (points last five). Head‑to‑head feels overrated but I keep checking it anyway. Curious how you all weigh these signals in 2025.

Quote from birom7 on April 24, 2025, 8:22 pm

I treat metrics like spices: a pinch of each, heavy on context. That said, non‑shot xG chain value has become my clincher—captures ball progression even if shots don’t fly. On the best soccer prediction site you can overlay chain value with compactness scores, spotting teams that build danger without finishing. When those teams face low‑block oppositions who concede few shots but lots of territory, the upset flag goes up. Combine that with a momentum index (rolling PPDA delta) and my strike rate on “Both Teams To Score” markets improved by about 9 % this season.